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Could Sarah Palin win a Senate race?

Sure, Sarah Palin has returned to her quiet life of governing Alaska, but that doesn't mean she's going to be content grand-mothering, hunting and watching turkey beheadings forever.

One of the possibilities that's been discussed for Palin's future is a Senate run in 2010, and she hasn't ruled the idea out. But would she be able to unseat Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski? Two recent polls provide very contradictory answers to that question.

Tuesday, Dittman Research released a poll that showed Murkowski crushing Palin in a potential Senate race face-off, 57 percent to 33 percent.  But wait -- those worried that Palin might become no more than a mere calendar model should know that a December Research 2000 poll sponsored by DailyKos found that 55 percent of Alaskans favored Palin. Murkowski got the support of only 31 percent of respondents.

What to make of those disparate findings? Poll guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com points out a reason why the two polls' results may be so skewed. The Dittman Research poll was paid for by Dan Fagan, a talk show host and writer for The Alaska Standard blog, who has shown a remarkable dislike of Palin in many of his posts. Silver writes, "the Dittman poll should be regarded the same way that a 'leaked' internal poll is, which is to say very dubiously. And if Murkowski was for some reason involved in the creation of the poll, the fact that she feels the need to start spinning 18 months before a primary against an opponent who has yet to declare for the race and probably never will suggests to me that she's very scared of the 'Cuda indeed."

Polls continue to show Palin with favorability ratings at or above 60 percent in Alaska, which is lower than the rating she had before she ran for vice president but still quite good. Additionally, more than 60,000 people have joined TeamSarah.org, an organization devoted to uniting the various fan clubs of the former Republican vice-presidential candidate.

What ban? Coulter appears on "Today"

Ann Coulter didn't get to make her scheduled appearance on NBC's "Today" show on Tuesday, prompting a story from the Drudge Report that NBC and MSNBC had decided to ban the columnist from their airwaves.

If that report was true -- NBC denied it -- then the ban didn't last very long. Wednesday morning, Coulter was on "Today" for what proved to be a contentious interview with host Matt Lauer.

Of course, the first issue at hand was the topic of the earlier cancellation, and Drudge's story. Lauer told Coulter she had been bumped from Tuesday's show because former British Prime Minister Tony Blair needed to take her slot, but she wasn't buying it. "I don't think I'd be sitting here now if it weren't for the headline on Drudge," she said. Lauer contested that, saying there was no ban, but Coulter responded, "The Drudge Report has never had to retract a report."

That's an interesting assertion, to say the least. It may be true that Drudge has never actually retracted a story, I'm not sure, but it's certainly true that there were some they definitely should have retracted. Offhand, there's the allegation John Kerry had an affair with an intern, and more recently -- and directly analogous to the Coulter report -- there was the story that Oprah Winfrey had specifically decided not to have Sarah Palin on her show, when in fact she had decided not to have any candidates on during the campaign.

There were other topics discussed, of course, and Lauer did a good job of challenging Coulter. His best moment came when he was questioning her about using "B. Hussein Obama" to refer to Barack Obama; when he asked, repeatedly, why she doesn't refer to George W. Bush as "G. Walker Bush," she was unable to come up with a coherent response.

 

Report: Burris will be seated

Breaking news in from the Associated Press: Senate Democrats now plan to seat Roland Burris.

No more information than that is available so far. First impression, though, is that this news just reinforces the impression that the Democratic leadership handled this really, really badly. If they were going to let him in as of Wednesday, why not seat him Tuesday? Why allow the embarrassing spectacle of Burris walking out in the rain after being turned away? Not a good way to start the new Congress.

Update: A spokesman for Majority Leader says the report is "wrong" and that "there have been no decisions."

George W. Bush, environmentalist

President George W. Bush will leave office with a surprising distinction: As of Tuesday, he has now protected more ocean area than any president before him.

On Tuesday, Bush established three new national monuments, which occupy a total of 195,000 square miles of the Pacific Ocean. The monuments are near American Samoa, Guam and Hawaii; one of them protects the Mariana Trench, the deepest spot in all the world's oceans. Activities like commercial fishing and oil drilling are now prohibited in the areas Bush set aside, and certain species will be protected as well.

Even environmental groups like Greenpeace are cheering Bush for the move. "This is a truly rare opportunity for us to applaud the Bush administration!" Greenpeace says on its Web site. "The lesson in this development? In the game of environmental sin and sainthood, nobody is beyond redemption. Other world leaders who might be feeling guilty for not doing enough environmentally may also be looking for ways to atone for their sins. Perhaps if they all took this one leaf out Bush's book, we'd be a lot further along in reaching our goal - to save our seas - before it's too late."

Dianne Feinstein, maverick

It's been a busy couple days for Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.

On Monday, Feinstein -- the incoming chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee -- put out a statement in which she criticized the choice of Leon Panetta to run the CIA, saying, "My position has consistently been that I believe the Agency is best-served by having an intelligence professional in charge at this time."

Tuesday, Feinstein spoke with both President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden and her office released a new statement in which she took a more neutral position, but she still didn't offer Panetta her support. "I have been contacted by both President-elect Obama and Vice President-elect Biden, and they have explained to me the reasons why they believe Leon Panetta is the best candidate for CIA Director," she said. "I look forward to speaking with Mr. Panetta about the critical issues facing the intelligence community and his plans to address them."

Then, shortly after that, she was making news, once again for publicly disagreeing with her party's leaders. This time, the difference was over Roland Burris, Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's choice to fill Obama's Senate seat. Feinstein now says Burris should be seated if and when he's able to get Illinois' secretary of state to give him the signature necessary to make his paperwork official. "The question, really, is one, in my view, of law," the senator said, according to Politico. "And that is, does the governor have the power to make the appointment? And the answer is yes. Is the governor discredited? And the answer is yes.

“Does that affect his appointment power? And the answer is no until certain things happen.”

As Josh Marshall observes, Feinstein probably has her legal analysis right. That doesn't make her public dissent on the Burris question any less embarrassing for Majority Leader Harry Reid, though.

Jeb Bush won't run for Senate

Looks like the Bush family's political comeback will have to wait: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the president's brother, has decided not to run for Senate in 2010.

"While the opportunity to serve my state and country during these turbulent and dynamic times is compelling, now is not the right time to return to elected office," Bush said in a statement released Tuesday. "In the coming months and years, I hope to play a constructive role in the future of the Republican Party, advocating ideas and policies that solve the pressing problems of our day. We must rebuild the Party by focusing on the common purposes and core conservative principles that unite us all -- limited government, a strong national defense and safe homeland and the protection of liberty tempered by personal responsibility."

Report: CNN's Gupta Obama's choice for surgeon general

The Washington Post's Howard Kurtz reports that Barack Obama has made an interesting choice for surgeon general: Dr. Sanjay Gupta, who's best known for his work on CNN and CBS.

Kurtz says Obama has offered the job to Gupta, a neurosurgeon, and told him he "could be the highest-profile surgeon general in history and would have an expanded role in providing health policy advice." Gupta reportedly wants the job, but hasn't officially accepted yet -- he's still being vetted, and figuring out the logistics of moving his family, and the pay cut he'd take is reportedly a concern for him.

Also rumored to be on Obama's radar: Willard Scott to head the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ron Popeil to take over Bill Richardson's spot at Commerce and of course Gupta's CNN colleague Lou Dobbs in the top spot at Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

No, just kidding. And the mandatory jokes aside, this actually does seem like a good pick. Look at C. Everett Koop -- his success as surgeon general came because he built himself a high public profile. Gupta starts off with that, and we know he can look good in front of a television camera. Plus, he's not exactly a slouch as a doc, either.

Obama: Civilian deaths in Gaza, Israel "source of deep concern"

It took a while -- longer than some partisans on both sides wanted -- but Barack Obama has now spoken publicly about the situation in Gaza.

"I'm very concerned with the conflict taking place there, I'm monitoring the situation on a day to day basis," the president-elect told reporters, continuing:

The loss of civilian life in Gaza and in Israel is a source of deep concern to me. After January 20th I'm going to have plenty to say about the issue, and I am not backing away at all from what I said during the campaign, that starting at the beginning of our administration, we are going to be engaged effectively and consistently in trying to resolve the conflict in the Middle East...

So on January 20th you'll be hearing directly from me on this issue. Until then, my job is to monitor the situation and put together the best possible national security team so we hit the ground running on national security issues.

Biden criticizes handling of Panetta pick

Vice President-elect Joe Biden said Tuesday that the Obama transition team had made a "mistake" in handling the choice of former White House Chief of Staff Leon Panetta to head the CIA. Biden specifically criticized the failure to consult with incoming Senate Intelligence Committee chair Dianne Feinstein, who has expressed disappointment with the pick and with the fact that no one spoke to her about it.

"I'm still a Senate man and I always think this way: I think it's always good to talk to the requisite members of Congress," Biden said, according to the Huffington Post's Ryan Grim. "I think it was just a mistake."

Biden still backed Panetta for the job, however, saying, "Leon Panetta will do a first rate job. He's a great manager. He understands the community and I think he'll make a great director of the CIA. I've been here for I don't know how many of them and I think he'll be as good as any we've had."

Paterson asks Kennedy, five others for disclosure

Caroline Kennedy has taken a beating for her refusal to make a public disclosure of her finances. But she'll have to make a private disclosure, at least: New York Gov. David Paterson has asked her, and at least five other contenders for Hillary Clinton's Senate seat, to fill out a 28-page form.

The New York Times reports that the other people known to have received the form were Nassau County executive Thomas Suozzi and Reps. Steve Israel, Carolyn Maloney, Kirsten Gillibrand and Jerrold Nadler. Those under consideration are asked about their employment history, their finances and their criminal record, or lack thereof.

Kennedy's finances will remain private for now, however -- her answers will not be made public.

Meanwhile, Kennedy's been seriously slipping in the eyes of New Yorkers. A new poll conducted by Public Policy Polling shows that 44 percent of the state's voters now think less of her than they did before she began campaigning for the appointment. Only 23 percent of respondents said their opinion of her has improved. And while a similar survey last month had Kennedy getting a plurality of support, with 44 percent backing her, 58 percent of respondents now said they want to see state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo get the nod. Only 27 percent still favor Kennedy. And her favorable/unfavorable balance is at a dangerous level: 44 percent said they have a favorable opinion of her, while 40 percent said their opinion of her is unfavorable. (The margin of error was plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.)

"My name is Roland Burris, the junior senator from Illinois"
In a press conference, Burris tells reporters he was turned away from the Senate.
Burris: "We don't need this distraction"
Roland Burris tells Rachel Maddow that he is legally a senator, and says, "I just hope and pray that we don't keep stringing this out."
Dems won't try to seat Franken
Republicans have promised to block any attempt to swear Al Franken into the Senate, at least for now.
Panetta under fire already
Both the incoming and outgoing chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee are criticizing Barack Obama's choice to head the CIA.

Current Salon Politics Stories

Salon Politics Blogs

Recent Posts

What ban? Coulter appears on "Today"
Despite a report that NBC had decided to stop booking the conservative columnist, she was back on the show Wednesday.
Report: Burris will be seated
The Associated Press says Senate Democrats will now let Roland Burris take his spot in Barack Obama's old seat.
George W. Bush, environmentalist
In the final days of his presidency, Bush moves to protect a wide swath of the Pacific Ocean.
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War Room is written and edited by Alex Koppelman, with contributions from Salon reporters around the country.